Western-led global order eroded by nonstate armed groups
With tax collection and medical care, groups bare fangs against old rulers
TOKYO -- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed concern recently over the postwar governance of the Gaza Strip, warning of Hamas' possible resurgence there.
If Israel "gets out of Gaza" without a credible postwar plan for the Palestinian autonomous territory, it will leave behind "a vacuum that's likely to be filled by chaos, anarchy and ultimately by Hamas again," he warned last month.
Although Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas, it has not made clear who will govern Gaza after the fighting ends there. The U.S., Israel's main backer, fears the possibility of Hamas remaining as the ruler of Gaza.
Many Gaza residents rely on Hamas, not the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority, with some surveys showing that about two-thirds of residents want Hamas to govern the territory after the war.
The presence of nonstate actors that entrench their rule in areas beyond state control is growing globally.
Like Hamas, the Houthi rebel group in Yemen, which attacks merchant vessels in the Red Sea, and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah group also have both military and civilian wings. They take root in the lives of ordinary people on the back of religious beliefs.
In Latin America, Ecuador has seen cash-rich drug trafficking gangs gain momentum. Afghanistan has seen the Taliban, an Islamist militant group, return to power.
Nonstate armed groups thrive in "failed states," which have no fully functional government, posing a threat to regional stability.
As of the summer of 2023, there were 195 million people living under the rule of nonstate armed groups around the world, or one-fortieth of the global population, according to an estimate by the International Committee of the Red Cross.
Of the more than 450 such armed groups, 41% collect taxes, 25% have judicial or dispute-settlement mechanisms and 16% provide medical services. They act as if they were governments and have won hearts and minds among the people living in the territories they control, resulting in chronic confrontation between states and nonstate armed groups.
Sovereign states have acted as the basic building blocks for the post-World War II international order. After the end of the Cold War, regional conflicts occurred frequently, and arms proliferated.
The rise of nonstate rulers and the trend toward global multilateral polarization as U.S. power declines are two sides of the same coin.
Iran and Russia, which are at loggerheads with Western nations, are taking advantage of nonstate armed groups to shake the Western-led international order.
Iran supports Hezbollah and Houthi rebels, which have repeatedly launched military attacks on Israeli targets. In Africa, a private military company that is said to be a detached force of the Russian military has moved closer to authoritarian leaders and military juntas.
It is difficult in any case to effectively apply international law to nonstate actors or impose sanctions on them. If on top of this international organizations or multilateral frameworks become dysfunctional, there will be no way left to make nonstate actors comply with international rules.
Criticism of Western nations' "double standards" over Israeli strikes in Gaza is swirling in the Global South.
Western nations have been seen by many in the Global South as, in effect, giving tacit approval to rising civilian casualties from Israeli attacks in Gaza. As a result, trust in the rule of law that the West advocates has declined.
Spain, Norway and Ireland formally recognized a Palestinian state on May 28. Their moves were not unrelated to the international voices accusing the West of a double standard.
It may be time for developed countries in the Global North to reconsider their political stances and approaches to leading global affairs if they want to maintain their influence over the international order.